Bitcoin underwent some volatile days over the past week as conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensified.

On Saturday, the U.S., the E.U., the U.K., France, Germany, Italy, and Canada announced in a joint statement they would penalize Russia's central bank and exclude some Russian banks from the SWIFT messaging system, used for trillions of dollars worth of transactions around the world, and designed to "prevent the Russian Central Bank from deploying its international reserves in ways that undermine the impact of our sanctions."

In addition, U.S. latest the core personal consumption expenditures price index (PEC), the Federal Reserve's primary inflation gauge, rose 5.2% from a year ago, slightly more than the 5.1% Dow Jones estimate. It was the highest level since April 1983.

With Russian sanctions, soaring commodity prices and inflation fears, a fresh decline below $39,000 was triggered.

Talks between Ukraine and Russia are due to begin at 9:00 (GMT) near the Belarus border. Russia is interested in coming to an agreement that is in the interests of both sides at talks with Ukraine, Russian negotiator Vladimir Medinsky said on Monday, as officials prepare to meet near the border. Ukraine had agreed to talks with Russia "without preconditions", the office of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said yesterday.

If Russia and Ukraine did reach an agreement, Bitcoin will bounce back above $40,000 and switch to an uptrend.

BTC Technical Analysis

On the 4H chart, BTC is trading below MA100, but above MA50. Now, we can see BTC is trying to break above 38.2% Fib level. Besides, BTC is in contracting triangle area, which means it will soon choose the direction. The main resistance is now near the $39,700 level, which is also the 50% Fib retracement level. If it breaks this level, it could even attempt a clear move above $40,000.