Despite the fact that the past week was expected to be bearish by all technical indicators, the price fell only on Monday, where it reached the next low of the month of September near the $39,655 mark, and then the price turned bullish, hitting the highest of $44,415 on Thursday. But at the beginning of this week, Bitcoin declined below $43,000 again.
The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has also risen above $2 trillion again. However, it cannot yet be said that this is a significant leap upwards, compared to $3 trillion, which was achieved by the crypto market in November. And the share of Bitcoin, despite the general growth last week, continues to decline and amounts to 39.5%.
After cryptocurrencies were banned in China, the center of influence on the crypto market has finally shifted to the United States. Another proof of this was that a few words from the chairman of FED, Jerome Powell, were enough to stop the decline of bitcoin and turn the trend of the crypto market up.
Speaking to the US Senate Banking Committee, Powell said that stablecoins can be used with the official Central Bank digital currencies CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency is fiat money in digital form that is issued and provided by the Central Bank). But this did not at all allow crypto price to move north, but the general weakening of the dollar and the return of investor risk appetite.
As noted above, Jerome Powell has signaled that the FED has not yet decided to cut its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet, and that there will be no more than 3 rate hikes in 2022. As a result, the DXY dollar index fell down, while stock and cryptocurrency went up.
It is clear that it is too early to talk about the beginning of a new rally in the crypto market. The BTC/USDT pair is 35% below its all-time high. And, if the dollar starts to gain strength again, we can expect cryptocurrency to return to a downtrend.
According to Bloomberg, only 5% of customers surveyed by JPMorgan believe that the price of bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of 2022. More than 40% believes that it will only return to the $60,000 level. According to bank strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the fair value of Bitcoin is in the range of $35,000 to $73,000.
As for the forecasts for the coming week, it is likely that in the next few days we will see a further increase in prices, and then a reversal and another decline.
Looking at the weekly price chart, one can hardly say that the market has already been “at the bottom” and today's price increase is the beginning of a reversal. We see that the weekly candlestick, although colored green, is still much shorter than the previous descending candlestick, and the closing of the candlestick will be significantly lower than its high. Rather, it was only a bullish correction and further declines are yet to come. It is difficult to predict how far the price will drop in the long term, but even the possibility that $30,000 support will be reached cannot be ruled out.
Now the price has concentrated near the equally important support level of $40,000, where the price is likely to reappear by the end of the coming week.
On the daily price chart, the situation is also ambiguous. And it can go up as well as down. However, it is worth paying attention to the fact that BTC price can reach the upper limit of the downtrend, after which a rebound and movement near the support line is possible.
The MACD and RSI indicators are also neutral for now. It is quite possible that the market expects a side trend that may replace the downtrend. And when the boundaries of the trend are marked, it will be possible to start trading within these levels.